Great Bend, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

126
FXUS63 KICT 131809
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1209 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances (under 30%) of a few showers along a northeast of
  a Salina-Chanute line late tonight into early Wednesday
  morning.

- Potential for strong northwest winds on Friday could lead to
  elevated fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows a cutoff
upper low over Texas and a potent shortwave trough digging into
the northern plains. Meanwhile, an upper ridge continues to
meander over the western CONUS. Closer to home, surface winds
continue to be out of the west, and they will continue this way
throughout the day. A downsloping effect will help to catapult
temperatures well into the 60s this afternoon. A cold front
arrives overnight into Wednesday morning. However, other than
some gusty winds Wednesday afternoon, temperatures after the frontal
passage will only be knocked down to near average for this time
of year. This front will also bring a few showers across
locations along and northeast of a Salina-Chanute line mainly
overnight into early Wednesday morning. Another front will
approach the area on Thursday; however, southwest winds during
the day will aid in temperatures briefly recovering to the
upper 40s and 50s during the afternoon hours.

The frontal passage late Thursday night into Friday morning will
bring cooler temperatures again, and more importantly, it will bring
the potential for strong northwest winds throughout the day on
Friday. Currently, NBM probabilities only show a 15-20% chance
of wind gusts over 50 mph across the area. However, the NBM
tends to under- forecast wind speeds. Additionally, the ECMWF
EFI for wind gusts on Friday is trending upwards, and the
deterministic global models have also been trending windier.
Trends will need to monitored in upcoming forecasts as this
could have an impact on the potential for wildfires and blowing
dust during the day on Friday. Continued breezy conditions are
forecast to persist as well as colder temperatures lingering
across far eastern Kansas and Missouri for Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures are currently forecast to recover a bit going into
the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Considerable high clouds are impacting the area this afternoon
with light westerly winds. A backdoor cold front will arrive
tonight bringing gusty northwest winds tonight into the day on
Wednesday. A few sprinkles or light rain showers may impact the
region late this evening and tonight but minimal impacts to TAFs
are anticipated. Northwest winds may gust over 35 knots at times
on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 620 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

     Friday Afternoon...

Strong northwest winds with gusts up to 45 mph and relative
humidity values down to 25% will support widespread very high
grassland fire danger. Cool temperatures in the 40s may somewhat
mitigate fire weather concerns.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...JC